Advisory · Research · Valuation — Gabetti Group

8 July 2026

Residential Market 2026: the dream of homeownership lives on

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Real Estate Operators & Developers

Italians are shifting strategy: longer mortgage terms to keep buying homes

Against a global macroeconomic backdrop marked by heightened geopolitical tensions, volatile energy costs, and domestic inflation at 3.0%, Italian households are not giving up on buying a home. Instead, they are opting for longer-term mortgage solutions.

These are the key findings of the new G-Market Pulse (Q2 2026) report, produced by our Research & Data Intelligence Department.

In the second quarter of 2026, Italy’s residential mortgage market reveals several clear trends: mortgage terms are becoming longer, the share of higher-value loans is increasing, and, despite interest rates remaining relatively high, demand continues to show remarkable resilience.

How italians mortgages are changing

Italian households are extending their debt horizon, choosing longer mortgage terms and, increasingly, higher loan amounts to keep the dream of homeownership alive, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and persistently high interest rates.

Homeownership remains the goal, the timeline is changing.

The rise of very long-term mortgages and larger loan amounts

One of the most significant trends concerns mortgage terms. With interest rates still remaining at relatively high levels, many households are choosing to spread their debt over a longer period to make monthly repayments more affordable.

In other words, Italians are not giving up on buying a home; instead, they are adapting their financing strategy to cope with the continued high cost of borrowing. This trend is clearly driving the growth of very long-term mortgages: loans with terms of 26 to 30 years have continued to increase, rising from 61.3% in Q2 2025 to 65.2% of the total in Q2 2026.

Shorter-term mortgages decline

At the same time, demand for shorter mortgage terms has eased. The share of mortgages with terms of 21–25 years has edged down to 20.0%, from 20.6% in Q2 2025, while loans with terms of 16–20 years have declined to 10.3%, compared with 11.2% in the previous year.

Interest rates at their highest level in the past 18 months, but demand remains resilient

Average mortgage interest rates have reached 3.47%, their highest level in the past 18 months. Despite this environment, demand for mortgage financing continues to prove remarkably resilient.

The desire to buy a home remains strong.

Average loan amounts are increasing

The average mortgage amount has also continued to increase, reaching €147,440, up 18% compared with Q2 2024.

Higher-value mortgages are gaining a larger share of the market. Loans exceeding €200,000 have nearly tripled over the past two years, rising from 11.1% to 30.2% of all mortgage applications. Over the same period, the share of mortgages below €100,000 has fallen by more than 20 percentage points, declining to 13.8%.

This is a clear sign that rising property values and larger financing needs are translating into increasingly higher mortgage amounts.

The paradox: homebuying demand grows despite high interest rates

Global uncertainty, which is reinforcing the perception of housing as a safe-haven asset, is driving a surge in residential property transactions.

In a context of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, residential property continues to be perceived by Italian households as one of the safest forms of investment.

In the first quarter of 2026, residential property transactions increased by 4.4%.

Moreover, households’ homebuying intentions rose to 5.0% in the second quarter of 2026, surpassing even the historic peaks recorded in 2021 during the post-pandemic housing boom.

This recovery does not appear to be temporary; rather, it signals the beginning of a new growth cycle, supported by both sustained demand and the gradual rebalancing of the mortgage market.

The outlook confirms the recovery in 2026

Forecasts point to approximately 785,770 residential property transactions in 2026, up 2.5% compared with 2025, confirming that the market has moved beyond the downturn experienced over the previous two years.

In summary: the mortgage is changing, not the dream of homeownership

Sebbene vi siano tassi ancora elevati e un contesto di incertezza globale, gli italiani continuano a investire nella casa, optando per mutui più lunghi e importi più elevati per rendere sostenibile l’acquisto.